Dr. Staytcho Kolev of the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology was kind enough to respond to the post on Bulgaria from a couple of weeks ago, adding some additional insight to the climate of Bulgaria.
The four most common synoptic scale features that influence weather for the Balkans in general and Bulgaria in particular are polar cyclones, and with more frequency, those borne in the Mediterranean. Polar ridges are also a common feature for the Balkans, and the ever present Azores high also influences the climate of Bulgaria.
Dr. Kolev also wished to reassert the importance the topography of Bulgaria has in the regions climate. The Stara Planina, or Balkan Mountains, bisect the country from west to east. In the Summer and into Autumn, when systems ride at latitudes further to the north, shower activity cannot traverse the mountain ranges, and the northern parts of the country see the heaviest precipitation during this time of year. In cooler months, when the systems develop further to the south and over the Mediterranean, the opposite is true, with the rain fall getting hemmed up along the southern slopes of the Stara Planina. Along the coast, as one can imagine, the Black Sea does moderate temperatures in the harsher summer and winter seasons.
Over the past 20 years, dry Springs and Autumns have led to dry years on the whole. 2000 was the driest year of the century for Bulgaria, with only the northeastern part of the country and certain mountainous areas not seeing the aridity. Since 2000, Bulgaria has still been drier and warmer than average, but those changes have been less anomalous.
Thanks again to Dr. Kolev for taking the time to educate us further on the weather in Bulgaria!

Well, friends, I made it back safely and I can get back to the forecasting. Today, I will be doing so for upstate South Carolina, namely the Greenville-Spartanburg area. I truly cannot think of anything amusing to say beyond that.

At 153PM ET, Greenville was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees. Remnant thunderstorms were being seen over Whitmire and from Abbeville to the north shore of Russel Lake. These storms were moving slowly to the south and east and were leftover from general daytime convection, and not part of a larger scale synoptic feature, although a stationary front sat to the north, and had been breaking down through the day.
There was no jet activity at the 300mb level across the US, but a weak turning in the upper atmosphere was leading to enough vorticity to prolong the lifespan of the surface feature, which was waiting for a more well developed system borne in Canada to sweep through the Appalachians, Through the next day however, the upper level turning will become more compact, leading to more vorticity in lower levels and aloowing for thunderstorms to continue firing in the southeast. With the rotation of the surface low, however, it is likely that the some of the activity will be swept to the east of the Greenville-Spartanburg, reducing the coverage and intensity of the storms over the upstate. There is little cool air to be advected, so a noticable change in temperature is not expected.
Tomorrow - Scattered showers and storms, High 86, Low 67
Monday - Isolated showers and storms, High 86, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 88, Low 69
Monday - Scattered thunderstorms High 89, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow - Variably cloudy with a couple of thunderstorms around High 88, Low 68
Monday - Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm High 88, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow - A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 86, Low 68
Monday - A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 69

IC: TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES. BOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

A look at the radar shows just a couple cells in the area.

I tried to think of some clever way to headline this verification for Redding that highlighted both the heat of the area as well as the local wildfires. I'm convinced there aren't any. It was smokey, however in Redding, as we all knew it would be with fires across the area, and the smoke actually kept it a bit cooler than the average forecast. Vic-Wx had the coolest forecast, but those bandits at the Weather Service who had the strategy of getting numbers exactly right, stole the top forecast award from us. Thieves.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 97, Low 65
Thursday - High 94, Low 65

It was a close contest throughout much of June that came down to the wire. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service were strong all around through the month, but The Weather Channel and Accuweather came on strong at the end. In the end though, consistency paid off for our forecaster of the month, the Weather Service, who barely beat out the other three mentioned,


And that's going to do it for me. I'm headed out of town to a land without the internet for a couple of days, and V-W will be off until Saturday. It should be a good holiday for most everyone, but thunderstorms could spoil fireworkss in the northern Rockies and isolated areas from DC to Oklahoma City, but nothing widespread. Happy Fourth!

We won't be straying too far from last weeks featured country, Bulgaria, as we take a look at Moldova this evening. Moldova is further north than Bulgaria and less influenced by the Mediterranean, however it is greatly modified by the Black Sea. It's position in the steppes west of the Carpathians allows it to be dry, much like the Prairies of the American Midwest, or, more accurately, the High Plains. It's location near the Black Sea, however, does allow for Spring and Fall thunderstorm development, preventing Moldova from becoming desertified.
The State Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Moldova provides weather. Their website is primarily one to provide information about the activities and organization of the SHS, and there are numerous pages on the topic. The main page provides a basic forecast for Chisinau, the capital, as well as the various other regions of the country, and that is pretty much the extent of meteorological data on the site. The top tabs will direct you to different departments of the SHS and give you a little background about what it is that they do in those departments. The thing I particularly noticed was that there seem to be a lot of women working there. Credit Moldova for it's gender equity, I suppose. There have been other non-dissemination oriented weather sites that we've come across, but Moldova's does something nice, providing us with a www.meteo.md/en/mass.htm list of outlets that distribute SHS weather information. I'm mostly intrigued by the telephone robots. Moldova's SHS comes across as an organization with nothing to hide, and their website provides exactly the information that one would want to look for.

Redding is in northern California, which is generally the damper, cooler part of the state, but not this year. This year it's Northern California that's aflame.

At 153PM, PT, Redding was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with smoke present, but not limiting visibility. Fires were nearby in the southwest side of Redding and another near Whiskeytown Lake. The proximity of the fires indicated that nothing short of rain would steer smoke away from Redding.
A stout ridge in the center of the country is not going to be moving for a while, forcing a low over the Pacific north towards the Gulf of Alaska, keeping clouds and rain away from Northern California for at least the next two days. Ridging will, at the very least, prevent strong winds in the Redding area, preventing the spread of the fires. Heat will continue to blossom with clear skies.
Tomorrow - Smokey and hot, High 96, Low 61
Thursday - Continued heat with smoke lingering. Slightly more humid, High 94, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow - Mainly sunny. Areas of smoke and haze are possible, reducing visibilities at times. High 96, Low 67
Thursday - Mainly sunny. High 95, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and smoky High 100, Low 62
Thursday - Partly sunny and smoky High 96, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow - Areas of smoke. Sunny and hot High 97, Low 63
Thursday - Areas of smoke. Sunny High 95, Low 65

IC: Tomorrow - Generally sunny. Areas of smoke and haze are possible, reducing visibilities at times High 98, Low 67
Thursday - A few clouds High 96, Low 70

All the smoke is blowing to the south and pooling at the southern end of the Sacramento and San Joachim Valleys. Ugly.

Something was awry here in the land of Victoria-Weather last Saturday. The South Bend forecast published with the radar map in between the Accuweather and the Weather Service. Then the forecast itself published between two posts from a couple days earlier. Perhaps it was the sponsorship of Patron, leaving us a little tipsy. That could explain the abysmal forecast as well. South Bend dried out on Monday, which lead to the Weather Service inching up to tie with Accuweather for the day. In other news, the Victoria-Weather editor has been suspended.
Actuals: Sunday -  .24 inches of rain, High 76, Low 59
Monday - No rain, High 75, Low 50

Certainly a road trip Enid's little leaguers hope to be making this year.

Enid, Oklahoma to Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

Not many people take road trips from Indiana to Oklahoma, but for those that do, I can make forecasts for them.

South Bend, Indiana to Enid, Oklahoma

As a Purdue graduate, it would give me extra pleasure to pull off a win in South Bend.

At 1254 AM, ET, South Bend was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies. South Bend sat south of a deep, closed circulation cold core low over western Ontario that has been sending bands of showers and storms into the Great Lakes area, but at present the only two areas of concern were some light showers over Lake Michigan and a band of thunderstorms moving through Muncie.
The low which is being reflected through all levels of the atmosphere is reminiscent of a Spring time system, given the cold air it has access to and is cycling southward. The upper level trough parenting the surface feature is less part of a wave pattern than an aberration related to mostly laminar upper level flow over Canada, and will thus begin to break down as it falls into line. The surface disturbance will remain planted over western Ontario, and will kick up more isolated bands of showers and storms over South Bend, all while keeping temperatures well below seasonal averages.
Tomorrow - Isolated thunderstorms, High 69, Low 60
Monday - Mostly cloudy with rain showers in the area, High 69, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 71, Low 58
Monday - Isolated thunderstorms. High 75, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 73 , Low 58
Monday - Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 77, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow - A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 60
Monday - Partly sunny High 73, Low 55

IC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 71, Low 59
Monday - Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm. High 75, Low 56

Before I show you the radar, I just wanted to note that the ad on the Weather Channel was for Jose Cuervo. Awesome. But at Victoria-Weather, the tequila of choice is always Patron, the BMW of tequilas.