Not nearly as much on the plate this week. Just a couple of forecasts towards the end of the week, but don't worry, we'll have plenty to chat about even if we don't have forecasts.




Wednesday: Monroe, Louisiana
Thursday: Miami, Florida  Road Trip )Monroe - Miami)

        

A very long, very Canadian road trip from Texas to Alaska

Tyler, Teas to Anchorage, Alaska.

        

As I seem to recall, I've had some serious problems with Alaska forecasts in the past. I'm not really looking forward to this.

At 653AM, Alaska time, Anchorage was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Satellite indicated a weak area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska, but it was of little to no impact to Anchorage, as any moist flow was predominantly interrupted by the higher elevations to the southeast.
High pressure will eventually build into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday, which will actually lead to an increase of moisture, as wind will begin blowing into the Cook Inlet, which may set the stage for some isolated areas of showers in the afternoon on Sunday. For the most part, however, Anchorage will enjoy a pleasant, dry holiday weekend.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 52
Sunday - Increasing clouds late, High 73, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow - Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 71, Low 53
Sunday - Mostly sunny. High 75, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and nice High 73, Lwo 52
Sunday - Mostly sunny and nice High 76, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 50
Sunday - Parly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny (exact temperatures not given) High 70s, Low 50

IC: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy High 71, Low 53
Sunday - A few clouds.High 76, Low 55

A look at the satellite shows that spin in the Gulf of Alaska.

        

I was gone, for half of the month, of course, but Anthony picked up the slack. Not only did he throw up some good posts, he made some excellent forecasts. In fact, he made the best forecasts, and gave Victoria-Weather the title of Forecaster of the Month in June


After a couple of solid months out of The Weather Channel, they plummeted back to earth and were the worst forecaster in June. I don't know if it has anything to do with this.

        

Both days in Ocala, the observed highs and lows were 80 and 73 respectively. That, to me, seems a little fishy. It's Florida and forecasts were supposed to be up to 15 degrees warmer than 80. Looking at the individual observations, there wasn't a whole lot of variation, no major dips or valleys. The whole thing seems fishy to me. Fortunately, this is one of our between month exhibitions, so I'm not too worried about whether or not things were broken. Pretending like it was working fine, however we'll go ahead and say that Intellicast won. Only winning when things are broken. Ouch.

Actuals ??? Tuesday - .15 inches of rain, High 80, Low 73
Wedneday - .05 inches of rain, High 80, Low 73

Grade: D

        

Another day spent forecasting around our upper level trough (Charles, as we now know it), but this should be the last time we have to worry about it, so there is that. See ya later, Charles!

At 652PM, Cedar Rapids was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The  slow moving, thick cloud deck associated with the upper level trough was only recently departing Cedar Rapids. Temperatures in eastern Iowa are 15 degrees cooler than central Iowa, where the sun has been out all day. With the upper level low departing, warmer air is on the way back in with high pressure.
A lower level feature is sliding along the front range. It is presently seen near the Canadian border. By the end of the day Friday, it will be fairly intense for a low level feature, sitting over western Kansas. Enhanced southerly flow due to this system will mean slightly warmer temperatures and the chance for some showers late in the day Friday.
Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and much warmer, Morning fog High 81, Low 55
Friday - Isolated late thunderstorms, otherwise warm and pleasant, High 83, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow - Sun and a few passing clouds High 81, Low 56
Friday - Slight chance of a thunderstorm. High 83, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and warmer High 80, Low 55
Friday - Mostly sunny and more humid High 83, Low 59

NWS Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 56
Friday - Mostly sunny High 82, Low 60

IC: Tomrrow - Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 82, Low 56
Friday -  Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 83, Low 62

A look at the satellite shows a stark contrast between clouds and rain.

        

In some ways, the Southeast is an easy place to forecast for in the summer. In others, it's not. You see, any sort of disturbance in the area, and you are going to see thunderstorms. They are never very widespread, which eventually plays havoc with temperatures. The theory is, when there are storms and clouds, temperatures don't have enough time to warm to their maximum potential. With a cold front moving into the area, the universal opinion was that the temperatures would be in the low 90s on Monday in Montgomery. Alas, there were no thunderstorms, and alas, the temperature was substantially warmer than anyone had in the forecast. It wasn't a very good forecast, and the perfect example of fickle weather in the Southeast. There was a tie for the top spot between Accuweather and the Weather Service.

Actuals: Monday, High 95, Low 68
Tuesday - High 98, Low 65

Grade: C

        

Always synonymous with warm weather, hurricanes, and vacationing honeymooners, The Bahamas is an island nation found off the east coast of Florida and continuing southeastward to just north of Haiti. After a tumultuous start to their history, the Bahamas finally settled into British rule in the late 1700s, then finally full independence in 1973. The Bahamas pretty much lie in a subtropical to tropical climate, and the northern tier of the country lies pretty much in the middle of the Gulf Stream, which helps keep the temperatures up during the winter months. A freeze has yet to be reported in the country, but instances of temperatures in the mid 30s have been reported, mainly when Florida is in an Arctic outbreak. Obviously, the biggest threat The Bahamas experience on an annual basis are hurricanes. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 tore a swath of destruction over the northern portion of the country before slamming into Florida; Hurricane Floyd hit most of the islands in 1999; Hurricane Wilma also hit the northern edge of the country in 2005 to name a few. scattered thunderstorms are also pretty normal throughout the spring through early fall months, causing brief, intense downpours, then shortly thereafter, sunny skies return.

The Department of Meteorology is the governing meteorological body in the island nation. The website appears to have plentiful links to satellites and radars. Upon inspection, most of the radar links aren't operating. There is also an area to inspect the local forecast for the next few days over much of the country. It appears this site is updated sporadically, as the last update for a week and a half ago. In addition, the satellite links all link to current visible images, despite them describing the water vapor and IR loops. The site overall has a lot of information on it, but after rooting through it, the majority of it is either not current or incorrectly identified. Should this get updated, the site would be a wealth of current data for vacationing Americans and Bahamians alike.

        

Today we travel from Florida to Tennessee. Unfortunately, we won't be finding many LeBron fans in this Cleveland. Perhaps some Pat Summit fans will greet us instead.

        

 The Minneapolis forecast seemed kinda monotonous thanks to Charles, our friendly stationary low pressure over the Great Lakes. And it was. Sunday was a bit warmer thanks to some breaks in the clouds, however Monday was not as kind as overcast skies throughout the region kept the temperature down a few notches. However, getting out of June with mid 70s as a high was much better than the low 50s we had earlier in the month. VicWx and IC tied for the win as the competition was neck and neck for this forecast.

Sunday: High 79, Low 61.
Monday: High 74, Low 62.

Forecast Grade: B